Views: 0 Author: Site Editor Publish Time: 2026-02-05 Origin: Site
Driven by the dual strategies of "energy self-sufficiency" and "manufacturing powerhouse," the Indian solar market is undergoing a profound transformation. As one of the world's top five solar markets, India not only possesses enormous installation potential but is also accelerating the localization of its industrial chain under policy guidance. Solar panels (modules), as the core terminal product of photovoltaic systems, are seeing their market landscape shift from "reliance on imports" to "local manufacturing + technological upgrading." This article, combining the latest industry data and policy dynamics, comprehensively analyzes the current status, driving forces, challenges, and future trends of the Indian solar panel market.
I. Market Status: Accelerated Installation and the Rise of Local Manufacturing
1. Ambitious Installation Targets
According to the National Electricity Plan 2022-2032 released by the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) of India, India plans to achieve a cumulative solar power capacity of 185.6 GW by the 2026-27 fiscal year and 364.6 GW by the 2031-32 fiscal year, accounting for nearly 60% of the total renewable energy capacity. As of the end of 2023, India's solar power capacity had reached 72.8 GW, meaning that an average of over 20 GW needs to be added annually in the next ten years, indicating vast market potential.
2. Continuous Growth in New Installations
According to Mercom India Research data, new solar power installations in India reached 18 GW in the first half of 2025, a significant increase of 31% year-on-year. The parallel development of distributed and large-scale ground-mounted power plants is driving a continuous increase in module demand.
3. Rapid Expansion of Local Manufacturing Capacity
The Indian government launched the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme in April 2021, focusing on supporting the manufacturing of high-efficiency solar modules. This scheme has driven the cumulative capacity of 48.337 GW through the first two rounds of auctions, expected to be completed within 3-5 years. By the end of 2024, India's planned module capacity is expected to reach 70 GW, providing a solid foundation for the local supply chain.
4. Chinese Manufacturers Dominate Exports, but Face Policy Barriers
China has long been the main supplier of solar modules to India, but in recent years, India has gradually restricted import dependence through trade protection policies. From April 1, 2024, the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) officially implemented the ALMM list (Approved List of Models and Manufacturers of Solar Photovoltaic Modules), explicitly excluding Chinese manufacturers and directly impacting the market access of Chinese module companies.
II. Core Driving Forces: Policy, Resources, and Industrial Synergy
1. Strong Government Policy Guidance
○ PLI Scheme: Providing financial subsidies to local manufacturers to incentivize the construction of high-efficiency battery and module production capacity;
○ ALMM and BCD: The Basic Customs Duty (BCD) and ALMM work in tandem to restrict imported modules and protect the domestic industry;
○ Increased Budget Support: The budget for photovoltaic projects in the 2025 fiscal year has been increased to 100 billion Indian rupees, double that of the previous year, demonstrating the national commitment.
2. Abundant Solar Resources
Most parts of India receive an average of 5–6 kWh/m² of sunshine per day, and western states such as Rajasthan and Gujarat have ideal conditions for building large-scale photovoltaic power plants, providing a natural foundation for large-scale power generation.
3. Driven by Energy Security Strategy
India has long relied on coal-fired power generation, facing pressure from carbon emissions and the burden of energy imports. Developing photovoltaics is a key path to optimizing the energy structure and enhancing energy security. The government regards photovoltaics as a core pillar of "national energy independence."
4. Emerging Synergistic Effects in the Industrial Chain
Domestic manufacturers are accelerating capacity expansion in the battery and module segments. Leading companies such as Adani and Tata have already deployed high-efficiency technology production lines such as TOPCon. At the same time, First Solar of the United States announced an investment of US$700 million to build India's first vertically integrated module factory in Tamil Nadu, with an annual capacity of 3.3 GW, marking increased international capital confidence in Indian manufacturing.
III. Market Landscape: From "Import Dependence" to "Domestic Priority"
1. Chinese Manufacturers Face Obstacles, Turning to Localization Strategies
Faced with ALMM restrictions, some Chinese manufacturers have begun to explore local cooperation models. In May 2025, Trina Solar announced a partnership with SolarWorld, one of India's top ten EPC companies, to jointly build a 1 GW module production line, expected to be operational by the end of March 2025. This makes it the first Chinese photovoltaic company to establish local production capacity in India, aiming to circumvent trade barriers and enhance brand influence.
2. Domestic Companies Dominate
Although Chinese products once held a significant market share, Indian domestic manufacturers such as Adani Green and Tata Power Solar still dominate the domestic market thanks to policy support and local service networks. In the 2023-2024 fiscal year, Jinko, Longi, and Trina Solar became the top three module suppliers in India, but future growth is limited by the ALMM (Approved List of Models and Manufacturers).
3. Accelerated Technological Iteration
○ N-type modules become the mainstream trend: The global market share of N-type modules is expected to approach 80% in 2024, with TOPCon technology accounting for the largest share;
○ Leading Indian companies are actively introducing TOPCon production lines to improve efficiency and competitiveness;
○ Diversified size specifications: Large-size modules such as 182mm and 210RN (182×210mm) have become mainstream, improving system efficiency and installation economics.
IV. Challenges and Risks: Realistic Bottlenecks Cannot Be Ignored
1. Domestic Manufacturing Capacity Not Yet Fully Utilized
Despite the large planned capacity, the actual utilization rate is low. In 2024, the utilization rate of Indian domestic module capacity was only 25%, reflecting problems such as delayed construction progress, slow technology transfer, and incomplete supply chains.
2. Labor and Experience Shortages
Most Indian manufacturers lack experience in large-scale, high-efficiency battery manufacturing and face problems such as insufficient labor skills and lack of management experience, which restricts the speed of capacity ramp-up.
3. Raw Material and Supply Chain Bottlenecks
A complete vertical integration system of silicon material-silicon wafer-battery-module has not yet been formed domestically, and key materials still rely on imports, especially from China, leading to limited "localization."
4. High Business Environment Risks
The Ministry of Commerce's foreign investment guide points out that the approval process for foreign companies to invest in and set up factories in India is complex, requiring approval from multiple departments such as the central bank, the Ministry of Finance, and the Ministry of Home Affairs, taking more than six months. Land acquisition and labor issues also often trigger social conflicts.
5. Obstacles to International Market Demand
The US has imposed a 50% tariff on Indian solar products and may initiate anti-dumping investigations, hindering 90% of India's module exports and exacerbating the risk of domestic overcapacity. It is expected that India may enter a stage of overcapacity in 2026.
V. Future Trends and Outlook
1. Technology-driven innovation becomes core competitiveness
With TOPCon becoming mainstream, the Indian market will focus on efficiency improvement and cost control. Next-generation technologies such as HJT and perovskite tandem cells are expected to be piloted in high-end projects.
2. Localized production will accelerate
Under the continued influence of PLI and ALMM policies, more Chinese and international companies may follow the model of Jinko Solar, entering local manufacturing in India through joint ventures and technology licensing to mitigate trade risks.
3. Distributed solar power has huge potential
The government is promoting rooftop solar and agricultural solar applications, especially in rural electrification and water pump replacement, leading to explosive growth in small-scale household systems.
4. Vertical integration of the industrial chain is the direction
In the future, companies with full-chain capabilities from silicon wafers to modules will have a greater competitive advantage. India may learn from China's experience and promote the industrial park model to achieve clustered development.
5. Deepening international cooperation
Besides Chinese and American companies, countries such as Europe and Japan are also paying attention to the Indian market. New cooperation models such as technological cooperation, green finance, and carbon trading mechanisms are expected to be implemented, helping India build a sustainable photovoltaic ecosystem.
Conclusion
The Indian solar panel market is at a historical turning point: on one hand, there is huge installation demand and policy dividends; on the other hand, there are the real bottlenecks of local manufacturing and the dual pressure of international competition. The next five years will be a critical window for India to truly achieve "solar independence." For global solar companies, India is not only a strategic market that must be cultivated, but also a touchstone for testing the capabilities of "localization + technological innovation" as a dual-engine driver. Under the sun, opportunities and challenges coexist. Only by adapting to the trend and cultivating the market diligently can one win the future in this South Asian land.
